1% chance Trump DOESN’T become President

by Eric Owens  |  published on February 25, 2016

A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.

The professor is Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman, the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.

Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.

The predictions assume Trump will actually become the 2016 presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

Norpoth announced his prognostication on Monday night during Stony Brook Alumni Association event at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan.

  • Suzey

    So, now Trump doesn’t know who David Duke is. That is what he said on an interview on CNN. He was asked to disavow Duke and then he said he didn’t know who that was. If he doesn’t know then he is stupid! There is also a report that in an interview with the NY Times, he made statements on immigration quite different than what he is now saying. Wake up you duped Republicans! Dump Trump before the Republican Party is down the tubes!

  • Larry

    TRUMP 2016

  • Suzey

    I agree with AKLady. We’re in deep do do if our choice becomes Trump vs. Hillary.

  • Rosa Ergas

    I don’t believe, anyone can fully know who will be the next president of the USA, till the elections !!!!!! The voters will have the last word, and many will be surprised at the end. I only hope the best candidate wins, the one who will make the USA the super, amazing power that it used to be!!!!!

    • reggie

      He who counts the vote will have the last word. Soros’ company in Spain is counting a lot of the vote, he has decided that kill will win.

  • Suzey

    I can predict as well as this supposedly ancient person and I say Republicans will lose if they nominate Trump.

    • Trbig

      lol.. When all you have to run against him are an aged devout socialist/communist and a habitually lying felon, it’s no wonder a knucklehead like Trump is even in the running. So just which of the liberal side are you thinking is going to win? Hilary can’t be trusted and Bernie’s views are opposite of everything this country was founded on and will tax us into oblivion for all his “Free stuff”. LOL @ anyone who thinks they stand a chance.

      • Suzey

        Trump proved in the debate tonight that he is an empty suit. I wish Republicans would wise up. Sanders won’t be the nominee and if Trump is his usual nasty self with Hillary, it could be lights out. We need a different candidat and I like Rubio.

        • AKLady2015

          Amen.

      • AKLady

        Yet another American, cold war victim.

        Socialism is not communism.
        Socialism does not lead to communism.
        .
        All modern, industrialized countries have mixed economies.

        Unlike America, the others do not allow people to die because they cannot afford to buy medical care.

        • Bill Hartman

          True. They allow people to die even if they CAN afford medical care, as they are forbidden to buy it. Waiting lists must grow until enough people die, based on the limited resources. Calling medical care “free” doesn’t create more doctors, nurses, and x-ray machines. It just encourages waste as those who receive care do not pay for it.

          • AKLady

            You have been well brainwashed.

            Your statement is totally false.

            .

            Your ignorance on the subject is huge.

            Show me the lines waiting for health care in these countries:

            India. Israel, Macau, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Austria, Denmark, Finland,, France, Germany, Greece, Guernsey, Jersey, Iceland, Isle of Man, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Peru, Columbia, Australia, and New Zealand

          • Treading Water

            Wow, that’s really impressive AK. You can open up an encyclopedia and copy down all of the names of all the (free?) countries in the world. I would charge YOU with the burden of proof, justifying your socialistic statements. I DOUBT THAT YOU HAVE BEEN A MEDICAL PATIENT IN ALL THESE COUNTRIES, SO YOU WOULDN’T KNOW!!!!

          • AKLady2015

            Neither have you.
            Grow up.

          • Bill Hartman

            I said list, not line. Just like the VA here in the US, there aren’t visible lines. Just waiting lists. My statement about limited resources is simple reality. As is essentially unlimited demand. The cost of extraordinary care to sustain life is without bounds. Something has to balance the two. If not money, then a committee. An inherently political committee.

          • AKLady2015

            The VA is underfunded and understaffed.
            They also engage in unecessary end of fiscal spending frezies.
            I worked for the agency in three different cities.
            One example is the top dog redecorating his office while the patients lacked both slippers and robes. That was 1980s Wisconsin.

          • Treading Water

            You mean the illegal aliens in areas where the undocumented gather?? When they can repeatedly take their 10 children into the emergency rooms for simple sore throats, because being illegal, they cannot get health insurance, and mostly they work for peanuts for greedy bosses who treat them badly because they know they cannot complain because they’ll be sent back. Hospitals who receive any federal funding, must by law, treat anyone who walks through the doors, even illegals, who milk this policy, and drain the budgets of these health facilities thereby depriving that business of the ability to hire more doctors, and get new X-ray machines.

        • Treading Water

          Well AK, move to one of these countries if you admire them so much. Don’t let our freedoms (which are slowly disappearing–sad) prevent you from getting the F out.

          • AKLady2015

            Another brainwashed child.

      • Treading Water

        Laugh about Trump if you want to. Have YOU ever built a single high-rise office/apartment complex in downtown NY??? This is a man who has been broke, and rich several times. This KNUCKLEHEAD knows what to do/ and how to do it!!!

    • AKLady

      Worse, yet — America will lose if he should be elected.

  • ehutch

    He must be very old to have predicted elections for 104 years.

    • Patriot53

      The article stated that “the statistical model” he used has correctly predicted the results. Just sayin’.

      • Treading Water

        Ehutch is making a funny. Don’t you get that?

    • KAY HOHLER

      YOU AND I WERE THINKING THE SAME THING…. SOMETIMES I WONDER REALLY HOW MUCH CAN WE BELIEVE

      • Glatik

        See Patriot53 reply.

    • Webb

      The professor is 211 years old…whats the problem, you can’t beat age and wisdom!
      [÷))

    • AKLady2015

      Sugtest that you increase your reading comprehension.

  • stoth

    If the other candidates will accept the fact that he will and stop beating each other up. Shut the two losers (Romney and McCain) up, and maybe Jeb will jump in and all of them work for the good of the Country It just might go.

    • Treading Water

      Oh-oh!! Make that THREE losers. In case you haven’t followed the news of late, your man, Jeb, dropped out. He came to the realization that his last name was tainted; too much like that of George’s, or even his father, George H. The Bush dynasty. Too many unfulfilled empty promises, and self engrandizing decisions, and not enough direct action benefiting the national interests. Where do you begin? I’m DEFINITELY not a Democrat, and I’d rather see an independent rather than a democrap in the white house, but Bush set America back when George W. first came into office by refunding the over-collection of taxes that Billy boy collected during his reign of terror. Prior to George’s First stupidity, America, after suffering the double-digit inflationary taxation of B. Clinton’s presidency, was closer to a balanced financial economy than since America began accruing national debt during the civil war. I can’t stand Clinton, but that was one thing they did right. Just saying….

      • reggie

        “We have a balanced budget today that is mostly a result of 1) an exceptionally strong economy that is creating gobs of new tax revenues and 2) a shrinking military budget. Social spending is still soaring and now costs more than $1 trillion. Is this the kind of balanced budget that fiscal conservatives want? A budget with no deficit, but that funds the biggest government ever” Taken from Cato Institute

        • Treading Water

          Reggie, are you on some kind of psychedelic mushrooms? Apparently, because YOU believe the government rhetoric about our economics.
          1. Because presidential predecessors have “gutted” our military, and cut our fighting force down to pre-WW11 numbers, in a failing attempt to SAVE money, because that savings has been redirected to entitlement programs. Our fiscal position has NEVER been worse. Our government collects more in taxes than ever, yet wastes more on pork than any previous president. We have the Intra-governmental holdings . at $4.855 trillion, giving a combined total public debt of $16.432 trillion. U.S. GDP in 2012 was approximately $16.2 trillion, for a total debt to GDP ratio of approximately 102% That means we actually owe MORE than we took in!!!!
          Our military cannot take out ISIS. We don’t have enough manpower, and resources. Do you understand that in the first half of the 1940’s we took down two of the largest military powers in the world? And only took 5 years to do it?? We have been in the Iraq/Afghanistan/Syrian quagmire for twelve years now, and we’re losing against these rag-headed camel jockeys who ride around in the back of Toyota pick-up trucks. Thank you fucking Billy for crippling our military by closing half our military bases!!!
          2. Explain please exactly HOW the government CREATES JOBS??? Unless the governmental regime actually OWNS a company, or business venture, it has zero ability to increase that company’s employee numbers. Unless a management actually NEEDS another employee, and can justify that expense through increased productivity, or lowered costs, they will not hire more employees regardless of the way the government sways. How do you suppose O’drama has CREATED ANYTHING AT ALL??
          I only WISH you were correct..

          • reggie

            TW – I’m no nuts, no meds, get it, but some sorry zzz has hijacked my name again. Every time I ‘hit a nerve’ it happens, or my post is deleted. Am at the point of not posting at all. DISQUS – go F yourself. Now, they can ban me. Sorry TW, I’m fed up with the games, brainwashing, censorship. No wonder this once great country is in the mess it’s in. Straight out of Alinsky, nwo, marxism. Of course eliminating the elite. if you get this please respond so I know it wasn’t deleted. Thanx.

    • Robert

      What would give you the Idea the Jeb would do what’s best for this country?
      He believes in The New World Order and Global Conglomerates who think they should Rule the Planet. Just like his Father and Brother.

      • AKLady

        Another Bush?
        We have not yet recovered from the last two.

      • stoth

        Keep the faith, baby. Miracles still happen.

    • AKLady

      That will never happen.
      American politics has become a sewer.

      • stoth

        keep the faith baby. This is the only place I have to live. I will do what is necessary short of lying and murder to keep the country livable .

        • AKLady

          Amen.
          Exactly.

  • Robert

    Who cares what this elitist professor thinks. He sounds like another New World Order Bum and Global Conglomerate Lover, who hates America and American Citizens.

    • Trbig

      lol. New World Order? That would be a liberal’s idea. And someone who hates America and American citizens? That would also be a liberal. Liberals want to call anyone who doesn’t agree with them a “Terrorist”. Also, a liberal’s ideas goes against everything this country was founded on, so that is also a liberal idea of hating America.

      • AKLady

        I have some very shocking news for you:
        The Founding Fathers were liberal, extremely so.
        They went as far as to initiate a revolution.

        • Bill Hartman

          In the old meaning of liberal, yes. Liberal used to mean open minded with a bias toward individual liberty. None of which describes modern American liberals.

          • AKLady

            You seem very confused.

          • Treading Water

            and you seem brainwashed.

          • AKLady

            You seem very confused.

        • Treading Water

          But their ideals were hugely different than those of “self-serving” Clinton, or “tax everyone to death to give free tuition to everybody” Sanders. Every FREE chicken-in-the-pot promise made by a progressive liberal, must be paid for somehow. He can promise us all THE MOON for free but it means NOTHING unless he has the deep pockets to pay for it.

          • AKLady2015

            Maybe you should actually look at the cointries that provide free education. A little research woild prevent you from embarassing America and yourself with ignorance.

          • Treading Water

            Really? it WOILD? Are YOU an expert concerning these COINTRIES? Maybe we should reconsider who’s the embarrassment.

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