Republicans are hoping a midwestern blue-collar wave can carry Donald Trump to the White House, and there’s growing statistical and anecdotal evidence that their hopes are justified.
Nate Silver, the left’s favorite polling guru, posted a chart on Sunday showing Trump is doing far better in midwestern states than Gov. Mitt Romney did in 2012.
Silver’s analysis shows Trump has gained 6 points over Romney in Ohio and Iowa, and has closed the gap with Hillary Clinton down to almost error-margin levels in crucial Michigan and Pennsylvania.
That midwestern success is what gives Trump a one-third chance of winning the election, said Silver. “Clinton underperforming Obama’s 2012 forecast by *4 points* in the Midwest. That’s a major liability,” he tweeted.
On Sunday night, according to RealClearPolitics’s average of polls, Clinton was ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania by just 2.4 points (46 percent to 43.6 percent), and ahead in Michigan by 4.7 points (44.7 percent to 40 percent). A win in either state could be enough for Trump to win the election.