Republican nominee Donald Trump could win the key swing states of Florida and North Carolina if Republican turnout is the same as it was during the 2014 midterm elections, according to an Alliance/ESA poll released Thursday.
Trump led Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton 47 percent to 43 percent in the four-way poll, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein tied at 2 percent.
When the high Republican turnout model is introduced, those numbers change to 48 percent for Trump, and 42 percent for Clinton in the 3-day rolling poll. Trump’s lead decreased for the larger 5 day rolling poll. Trump earned 46 percent compared to Clinton’s 44 percent with high voter turnout.
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida led Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy in every model, including the “strong Democratic turnout” model.