Five paths to victory for Trump

by JEFFREY H. ANDERSON | The Weekly Standard  |  published on September 23, 2016

One of the most pervasive myths in American politics is that a “Big Blue Wall” will protect Democratic presidential nominees, perhaps even those who lose the popular vote. In truth, this electoral Blue Wall is more like a collection of disconnected forts—some imposing, some not—and the loss of any one of them would likely doom the Democratic nominee.

The Blue Wall—states where the Democrats have won every presidential race since 1992—includes the entire Northeast except for New Hampshire, the Midwestern Great Lakes states aside from Ohio and Indiana, the three Pacific Coast states, and Hawaii. Even holding the wall is no guarantee of victory. John Kerry won the entire Blue Wall in 2004, plus New Hampshire, yet still lost to George W. Bush by 35 electoral votes. Al Gore won the entire Blue Wall in 2000—back when it was worth 13 more electoral votes—plus Iowa and New Mexico, yet still lost to Bush by 5 electoral votes. For the Democrats, holding the Blue Wall is necessary but not sufficient.

It is often claimed that Donald Trump has several must-win states, and this is true (although the states listed are often wrong). In addition to the 23 states that Mitt Romney won by at least 7 percentage points, which Trump isn’t going to lose, Trump has 3 must-win states: Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. (Polling finds that Trump narrowly overtook Clinton in mid-September in all three.) If Hillary Clinton wins any of those states, it’ll be a knockout blow.

But in addition to the 15 states where President Obama beat Romney by at least 10 points, which Clinton isn’t going to lose, Clinton has 5 must-win states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Virginia. (Polling finds her ahead in all five.) The first four are part of the Blue Wall; the Old Dominion is not. If Trump wins any of those states, he’ll be headed to the White House.

So there are eight potential knockout states in this election, and five of them are being defended by Hillary Clinton.

  • Tiger

    Stay the course. Fight the good fight. Take no prisoners, show no mercy, when she is wavering and faltering hit her again.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9T8u-t4DmUs

  • Tiger

    1.) Open every taboo that has been locked up by Establishment. Done.
    2.) Talk like a layman, tell it like it is, take names and call um out. Done.
    3.) After annihilating the enemy get all ducks in a row. Done.
    4.) Never falter from the facts of the threats and become stronger. Done.
    5.) Now that all enemies flailing like fish on the shore, hit um again. Done.

  • fish53

    Wake Up America before we want have a country to call our own. If people vote for Killary, y’all can kiss America good-bye as we know it. Look at all the hidden e-mails she deleted that were discovered by leaked information. Her foundation received money from foreign government. Also, the pay-for-play scam going on. Y’all better wake up. Killary don’t care about you. All she cares about is getting more power to do as she please and to satisfy the special interest, the big banks, the establishment, and the elites that donated big money to her campaign. Wake Up and vote Trump/Pence. Give these guys a chance. We gave everybody else a try why not Trump/Pence. Wake Up America!

  • Walter Flatt

    HIT HER BETWEEN THE EYES WITH THE FACT ABOUT HER PAST AND HOW BILL GOT IN IN OFFICE.

    IS HILLIARY ON DOPE? GOOGLE THE NEW CLINTON CHRONICLES 2015. CAN A CHRISTIAN, GI, VET, COP, AMERICAN VOTE HER

    • Tiger

      Take no prisoners and show no mercy.

    • Tiger
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