Silver: GOP slight favorite to win Senate

by
March 24, 2014

Statistician Nate Silver on Sunday said Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and take control of the Senate.

Silver wrote in a blog post that Republicans “have great opportunities in a number of states.” At this point, he is rating West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas as “clearly” as leaning toward the Republicans.
In an interview that aired on ABC’s “This Week,” Silver said the GOP has a 60 percent chance of winning control of the Senate, and a 30 percent chance to win it big. The Democrats, by contrast, have only a 40 percent of holding on to their majority, he said.

Arkansas is one state where Republicans have been “pretty consistently ahead in the polls,” he said. “We give them a 70 percent chance of winning in Arkansas. Louisiana is about 55 percent. North Carolina is a purple state so that’s about as 50-50 as it gets.”

Rep. Tom Cotton (R) is challenging incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas. Rep. Bill Cassidy (R), among others, is running against incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana. A slew of GOP candidates are running to unseat incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in North Carolina.

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