The state of Florida could prove to be the virtual tie-breaker in the Republican presidential race starting with a debate Monday in Tampa and ending with an early primary in 2012 that conceivably could wrap up the nomination.
It’s quite plausible that front-runnersÂ Rick Perry andÂ Mitt Romney could roughly divide the first four contests, in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. If that happens, Florida would be the difference maker, a prize so big in a state so central to presidential elections that the loser might struggle to stay afloat.
“My guess is that Florida is going to be the big kahuna,” said Brad Coker, a Florida-based pollster for Mason-Dixon who conducts surveys nationwide. Florida is much larger, diverse and expensive than the other four early-voting states, he said, and so it rewards the type of campaigning a Republican must do around the country to oust PresidentÂ Barack Obama in November 2012.
Of course, events over the next few months could upend that scenario. Perry, the Texas governor, or Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, might stumble. Minnesota Rep.Â Michele Bachmann could revive her struggling campaign. Former Utah Gov.Â Jon Huntsman might catch fire. A new candidate, such as former Alaska Gov.Â Sarah Palin, might jump in.
Then there’s the scheduling of those caucuses and primaries, which isn’t set.
For now, campaign strategists assume Florida will be the fifth contest, as early as Jan. 31, and the first in a big state.
Florida Republicans don’t follow presidential politics as intensely as do GOP activists in Iowa and New Hampshire. Nor do they expect one-on-one encounters with candidates.
When the nominating process rolls into Florida, “the days of the house parties are behind you,” said Phil Musser, a former director of the Republican Governors Association and a frequent consultant in the state.
In the next two weeks, Florida Republicans will get ample attention, beginning with Monday night’s two-hour debate sponsored by CNN and theÂ Tea Party Express.
The forum will include the eight contenders who debated last week in California, where Perry made his national debut. Romney is almost certain to renew his criticisms of Perry for calling Social Security’s funding structure “a Ponzi scheme.”
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